Beware Real Estate Advertising Statistics

Almost exactly a year ago, I posted a note that showed how numbers could be manipulated in ways that were truthful but either unhelpful or misleading (or both) when it came to comparing individual real estate agents. Recently, the following advertisement comparing offices in Rhinebeck caught my eye; and I can’t resist discussing it in the same context.

BH_Ad2

The ranking and statistics as reported in the advertisement are correct. According to this advertisement, it’s “Good to Know” that a certain office in Rhinebeck had a larger dollar volume of sales than any other. But does that help a prospective house seller or buyer?

Number of Sold Units More Important than Dollar Value

If I were going to sell my house, I’d be less concerned with which office had the most business in dollars. I get that many dollars indicates a high level of activity. And many sales dollars generates many commission dollars. But does that activity benefit the individual seller? In terms of dollars, I might be more interested in how close sale prices were to listing prices.

More than that, however, I’d want to know which office sold the highest percent of its listings, because actually getting my house sold is my highest priority. And so I divided total number of sales by total number of new listings to derive a percentage. Based on that criteria, the Rhinebeck office ranking for 2015 changes quite a bit*:

Rank Office New
Listings
Sales Percent
1 Paul Hallenbeck RE 132 50 39
2 C21 A. Ferri 33 12 36
2 Berkshire 183 65 36
3 J. Ettenson RE 53 18 34
4 Northern Dutchess 72 24 33
5 H.H. Hill 60 13 22
6 Paula Redmond 59 12 20
6 Staley RE 60 12 20

Based on percent of listings sold, Rhinebeck has a different leader. Tied for second and alone in third, are two offices that didn’t even make the dollars list. A third office is added to this group because it is statistically even for the number 6 ranking.

Success Rate of Individual Agents More Important than Office as a Whole

The office that supports your prospective agent is a valid consideration. But does the sheer number of office sales mean that much? I wonder which office contains the most productive individual agents because those agents — or one of them — will be primarily responsible for my listing. In the following table, I divide total new listings and total sales by the number of agents listed for each office in the MLS roster. Then I divide the resulting number of sales per agent by the number of new listings per agent to obtain a rank by percentage:

Rank Office Agents New Listings
Per Agent
Sales Per Agent Percent
1 Fraleigh & Rakow 3 4 2 50
1 G. DiMauro RE 5 4 2 50
2 Northern Dutchess 14 5 2 40
3 Berkshire 22 8 3 38
3 J. Ettenson 7 8 3 38
4 C21 A. Ferri RE 10 3 1 33
5 Paul Hallenbeck RE 9 26 6 23
6 H.H. Hill 4 15 3 20
6 Paula Redmond 4 15 3 20
6 Staley RE 3 20 4 20

Based on this ranking, we now have two new leaders among the Rhinebeck offices, neither of which appeared in the original advertisement or in my first table. Third and fourth spots still belong to two offices that did not make it into the original advertisement.

Focus Numerical Analyses on Individual Agents

Not only do I believe the numbers that reflect actual sales are more important and useful to prospective property sellers and buyers than sheer dollar amounts, I also believe that numbers pertaining to individual agents are more important than numbers pertaining to offices or brands. But even those numbers should be scrutinized, as I showed in last year’s post on Dutchess County sales numbers. To begin, each office is organized in unique ways and contains unique agents.

Imperative to Go Beyond the Numbers

Knowing that statistics can be massaged and manipulated, how does one choose a real estate agent? There are so many considerations — for now, I suggest that you Google “How to choose a real estate agent?’ As you read through the many pages that will come up, jot down the your concerns and the agent characteristics that matter to you most. Then have a conversation with more than one agent before you decide who to use. When presented with statistics always ask, what do these numbers really mean for me as I am considering this individual to help me buy or sell a property?

*Data sourced from Mid-Hudson MLS, the same source used in the advertisement. All fractions and percentages rounded to nearest whole number. Number of agents on roster comes from MLS at the time of writing.

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Thanks for reading. When you are ready to start browsing homes or land in Dutchess, Columbia, and Ulster Counties, I encourage you to do so at my websiteAsk-Marty.com. Because I am a member of THREE MLSs (Mid-Hudson MLS [Dutchess County], Ulster County MLS, and Columbia Greene Northern Dutchess MLS), you can search the entire region on both sides of the Hudson River. You can save properties that interest you and you can set the site to email you notices when new listings match your criteria. This a great way for buyers or sellers to monitor a specific neighborhood or school district or type of property!
Best wishes,

Marty

Rhinebeck? Which Rhinebeck are you looking for?

If you are looking for a property in or around Rhinebeck, you’ll want to be aware that there is more than one Rhinebeck because some Rhinebecks might meet your needs and some may not. Here in the Hudson Valley, in northern Dutchess County, Rhinebeck is a village, a town, a school district, and the 12572 postal zone. There are plenty of great reasons buy property in and around “The Jewel of the Hudson Valley.” Just be sure to check the details to get what you are looking for.

The post office for 12572 is located in the village of Rhinebeck and serves the entire village and most of the town, but also serves parts of the towns of Red Hook, Milan, Hyde Park, and Clinton. The Rhinebeck Central School District matches the postal zone pretty closely and extends into the adjacent towns at the same points. Some of the far corners of the Rhinebeck postal and school districts are farther away from Rhinebeck village than points inside adjacent districts such as Staatsburg (12580) and Red Hook (12571). For that matter, Kingston and some areas across the Hudson River are closer to Rhinebeck village than these outlying points.

The hamlet of Rhinecliff has its own post office (12574); located on the Hudson River just one mile west of the village of Rhinebeck, Rhinecliff is also the local Amtrak stop and is the one place where someone can own a home within walking distance of a New York City commute.

You can always check the exact municipality, school and postal district for any property at the county’s online database. Dutchess County properties are at http://geoaccess.co.dutchess.ny.us/parcelaccess/parcelaccess_map.htm and Ulster County properties are at http://gis.co.ulster.ny.us.

Of course, when you are ready to start browsing homes and land in Rhinebeck, or anywhere else in the Mid-Hudson Valley and lower Catskills Mountains around  Dutchess, Columbia, and Ulster Counties, I encourage you to do so at my website, www.Ask-Marty.com. Because I am a member of THREE MLSs (Mid-Hudson MLS [Dutchess County], Ulster County MLS, and Columbia Greene Northern Dutchess MLS), you can search the entire region on both sides of the Hudson River. You can save properties that interest you and you can set the site to email you notices when new listings match your criteria. This a great way for buyers or sellers to monitor a specific neighborhood or school district!

Thanks for reading,

Marty

Maarten Reilingh (Marty)
Licensed Real Estate Broker
Serving Dutchess, Ulster & Columbia Counties

48 E. Market St; Red Hook, NY 12571

www.ask-marty.com
marty@ask-marty.com

845-532-1204 (voice)
720-625-6543 (fax)

Single-Family Houses Market in the Red Hook Central School District (Red Hook, NY; Rhinebeck, NY; Tivoli, NY; Annandale-on-Hudson, NY; Barrytown, NY; Milan, NY; Clermont, NY)

Houses ARE selling and the market appears to be picking up, but this is still a buyer’s market, as single-family home sales numbers for the first quarter of 2014 for the Red Hook School District show.

On this date, April 21, there are 125 fully-available single-family properties in the Red Hook School District listed for sale in the Mid-Hudson MLS. Another 22 are tied up with accepted offers or contracts. There were 20 closings since January 1, 10 of these were in the last month.

The increased number of closings in the past month is a positive sign. Yet if we divide the number of fully available properties, 125, by the number of closings in the past month, 10, we get a current ABSORPTION RATE of 12.5, which suggests 12.5 months to “absorb” the properties currently on the market. Generally, an absorption rate of 5-7 months is regarded as balanced. A higher rate shows more houses chasing fewer buyers; a lower rate show more buyers chasing fewer houses.

Of course, when you are ready to start browsing homes and land in the Red Hook Central School District, or anywhere else in the Mid-Hudson Valley and lower Catskills Mountains around  Dutchess, Columbia, and Ulster Counties, I encourage you to do so at my website, www.Ask-Marty.com. Because I am a member of THREE MLSs (Mid-Hudson MLS [Dutchess County], Ulster County MLS, and Columbia Greene Northern Dutchess MLS), you can search the entire region on both sides of the Hudson River. You can save properties that interest you and you can set the site to email you notices when new listings match your criteria. This a great way for buyers or sellers to monitor a specific neighborhood or school district!

Thanks for reading,

Marty

Maarten Reilingh (Marty)
Licensed Real Estate Broker
Serving Dutchess, Ulster & Columbia Counties

48 E. Market St; Red Hook, NY 12571

www.ask-marty.com
marty@ask-marty.com

845-532-1204 (voice)
720-625-6543 (fax)